This weekend, we have a 14-fight card at Brazil. DraftKings has some adequate competitions out there with this Fight Night card, which can be uncommon for these free ones. The main tourney is the $8 entrance and pays $20k to 1st. That’s the principal GPP I will be chasing this week. As always, I will be in the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs as well. However, this week DraftKings includes two competitions for trips out to Vegas to see that the McGregor vs Khabib fight. Hotel, flight, and fights all paid for. The floor chairs competition is a $33 entrance along with the non-floor seats competition is only a $15 entry. I am going to have to take a few shots in that as well. Also, DraftKings simply released a contest for UFC 299 that is a $10 entry with a massive $100,000 to 1st place. That’s by far the biggest prize we’ve ever seen in DFS MMA, so let’s build a bankroll this weekend so we can take some extra shots at that $100k. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Livia Renata Souza ($9,600)
Livia Souza is the strongest triumph on the card and I think she gets this battle ended early. That is where I am starting my money LUs this week. Only give me the -1100 favored who is being fed up an easy win , for my cash games. I do like a great deal of the top favorites with this card, I just are the most shocked if Souza lost. I believe she is good in both formats, but she will most likely be chalky in GPPs, so money games would be the ideal place to get your Souza investment this week. Take this triumph, and then find 3 others and you should be good in cash games.
GPP drama of this week — Charles Oliveira ($9,400)
I am a big Charles”Can Bronx” Oliveira fan, and he has a few of my own favorites submissions in UFC history. I believe we could see another amazing one here. This battle appears to be simple to call. Do Bronx will look for the early takedown and if he could get it then he likely receives a 1st round sub. If this happens he must lock up a strong 100 points and I am pretty certain in being the results of this struggle, so that’s why he’s my GPP play of this week. He is also my GPP drama of this week, and not my Money play of this week for a reason. If he can’t get the takedown(s) early, then he will probably stop and get completed himself together with strikes. I don’t like that risk of a low floor for my own cash LU, so I prefer Souza there. However, in GPPs I enjoy saving the $200 and going down to Do Bronx.
Underdog play of this week — Eryk Anders ($7,600)
I would like Anders more if he was not carrying this fight on short notice, and if it wasn’t in Brazil. However he does have a clear route to success here and that is by knocking outside Santos who does not possess a fantastic chin. Anders could also go for takedowns in this fight and he can win with a few tough GNP as well. At $7.6k he will almost surely wind up on the winning LU when he is able to acquire the KO. This is the major event, so he’ll have 5 rounds to work with. I really do think that is a solid matchup for Anders, but he has to be aggressive and not hang out on the exterior. When he hangs out on the exterior too long Santos will eat him up with kisses and it might be a short night for Anders. I am going to pick him to get the win as an underdog in Brazil and I think he has it completed in the first two rounds with a KO. This will easily pay off his $7.6k salary and it’ll win you a GPP if you can get your additional five spots right as well.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($9,200)
Sam Alvey is always a fade for me. I wrote him up as my fade of this week here, I was very wrong and he scored over 100 points. If this happens again , then so be it. However, I refuse to rely on an early KO win to cover off a 9.2k salary by a man who doesn’t throw several strikes. At $9.2k I want at least 92 points from Alvey if I roster him and the only way get gets that is using a 1st round KO win. That could happen here against a 42-year-old Lil Nog, but I am not eager to spend my money in it.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on each fight, my personal strategies & suggestions, and my selection outlook for every single fight then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can go to this link below:
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